{"id":162,"date":"2024-04-29T01:14:37","date_gmt":"2024-04-29T01:14:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/functionfox.com\/?p=162"},"modified":"2024-05-31T21:03:54","modified_gmt":"2024-05-31T21:03:54","slug":"okay-ill-do-it-my-predictions-for-the-field-over-the-next-year","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/functionfox.com\/okay-ill-do-it-my-predictions-for-the-field-over-the-next-year\/","title":{"rendered":"OKAY, I’LL DO IT: MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE FIELD OVER THE NEXT YEAR"},"content":{"rendered":"
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My podcast co-host<\/a> is always saying that “experts” have a duty to predict the future. But since I\u2019m not sure he\u2019d be comfortable declaring that I\u2019m an expert, I\u2019m not feeling a whole lot of pressure here. Besides, these all seem a little like “Captain Obvious Decides to Start a Blog”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever. I\u2019m going to write about what I suspect most everyone is thinking. This is what I see happening in the near term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  1. Your biggest problem is\u00a0finding good people<\/strong>. A lot of the really great ones are settled in at firms they love, they survived the pandemic effects on the firm, and they\u2019d like to limit the disruption that would otherwise come with a job change. Others went out on their own and like it. They haven\u2019t been doing it long enough to experience the inevitable “referral drain” that comes a few years later, so they don\u2019t feel the tension of finding enough work. There\u2019s plenty of work.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Your next biggest problem is\u00a0paying them<\/strong>\u00a0what they want. That\u2019s an entirely separate thing, too. Getting great candidates to respond to your query is as likely as getting the neighborhood home improvement guy to show up on time, but paying them $75,000 right out of school\u2014something unheard of 2 years ago\u2014is starting to settle in. Experienced creatives are still readily available; experienced software engineers are not.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. On the subject of pay, it\u2019s going to move toward a\u00a0geographically agnostic pay structure<\/strong>. In other words, all the old salary surveys are wrong, declaring that CDs, for example, are worth more because they live near and work for a firm in NYC. Having said that, I think CDs are worth more if they work for a more prominent firm, which might be tied to their location, but if principals are going to let people live wherever they want, they are not going to adjust that person\u2019s salary over a decision for which they have no input. This obviously applies only to firms with a RW or WFH policy that allows it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  4. (Long term, I see the industry continuing its march toward less\u00a0paternalist policies around benefits<\/strong>, too. Childless team members don\u2019t understand the subsidization of the kid thing. I could be wrong on this; thus the parentheses.)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  5. There will be\u00a0unintended consequences<\/strong>\u00a0for the firms that are spreading out. The firms who\u2019ve long been set up as WFH will be fine, of course. They\u2019re just smugly grinning. Those who are sticking to their guns in believing that physical togetherness matters are getting tested, both in their philosophical belief and in their ability to attract talent in this all out talent war. Those who are embracing remote work because of what they learned through the pandemic are still learning how difficult the transition can be. Not in allowing people who usually work together to now work apart, but in trying to build a community when someone has never worked together like that, with this specific team. Managing people in that environment is very different, and we don\u2019t treat management all that seriously anyway. We have a lot to learn, here. One of many examples is this: I think that the portion of the team that is working remotely might not get the same career path opportunities as those who do work at the mother ship. Everything we\u2019ve learned about this has been helpful, but unintended consequences from the folks who don\u2019t know how to run WFH environments are still going to surface and will need careful attention.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  6. Some firms are going to get a little clever and turn the tables, here. If they are sticking with the original plan of generally working together, they are going to claim it as a\u00a0positioning advantage<\/strong>\u00a0that remote firms don\u2019t have, citing collaboration, communication, and creativity. I suspect they are right, but I don\u2019t have any data to support it. I haven\u2019t seen anyone do it overtly, yet, but it is coming.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    So what do you do? How should you respond? This is what I would do in your shoes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n